October Housing Market Update
This month, I'll be putting our monthly market update in a different format. The goal is to make it as easy to 'get' as possible. Let me know what you think...
I'll start by giving a simple, bite size breakdown of what the market looks like right now. Then I'll go into more detail below.
Let's look at the major factors in the market...
New Listings = Going Down, currently 26% less than this time last year
Available Listings = Flat
Pending Sales (Buyer Demand) = Dropped off a cliff, down 50%
Days on Market = 11 days is the median time for a home to sell
Price = Down slightly from last month, yet up 13% over this time last year
Summary:
It looks like we're going to see a very similar Winter market to what we saw last year... it just seems to be happening later in the year.
Last year, we watched as buyers took advantage of less demand in the market. We saw the median sale price drop roughly 10% from the peak in April to the bottom in December. Prices started rebounding rapidly after the beginning of the year.
Now we can dive deeper at each of these...
New Listings = Going Down, currently 26% less than this time last year
No surprise here, less people are likely to sell in the Winter months for many different reasons. Holidays, weather, travel and many more.
We will likely see the number of new listings continue to drop through the rest of the year.
Available Listings = Flat
Fewer available listings on the market only compounds the problem. A lot of people who are considering listing their home, also need to find a home to buy. When inventory is as tight as it has been for the last few years, it makes buying and selling more difficult.
We have a program to help that pain, it's called Buy Before You Sell.
Pending Sales (Buyer Demand) = Dropped off a cliff, down 50%
This is the most interesting data point that has changed. We felt this on our team in the last 45 days or so and we've already been communicating this to our clients.
Buyer demand dropping off is the first domino to fall that leads to the possibility of prices dropping.
Before we overreact, this compounds because inventory is also shrinking. We measure buyer demand by looking at the number of listings that go into contract. That is the number that dramatically dropped off in September. Don't be surprised to see this continue downward through the end of the year.
Days on Market = 11 days is the median time for a home to sell
With less homes coming on the market, but less buyers buying them, we will see the impact here fastest. If we see homes sit for longer, we can expect to see buyers getting better deals.
Having said that, days on market at 11 is a sign of a very hot sellers market. Even with interest rates in the mid 7% range, sellers are still going into contract fast.
Price = Down slightly from last month, yet up 13% over this time last year
September saw this first time the month over month prices have decreased in 2023. Which may be shocking to read if you haven't been watching the market closely.
Last year, prices started declining in May. We're seeing that same activity much later in the year.
Having said that, we are still at prices 13% higher than this time last year.
Needless to say, if you're looking to make a move this winter, you're going to want to make sure you talk to an expert. If you want to book a time to talk, click here.
PS - For those that are buying and selling next time you move, check out the Buy Before you Sell program I mentioned earlier.
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