March 2024 Orange County Housing Market Update

If you can smell smoke, there is a fire...

That fire is the market so far this year. Let's start with the summary (this doesn't give a good representation of what we're seeing, but I'll explain)

Summary of the February 2024 Market Update

New Listings = Oh boy... here we go... We had 300 fewer new listings hit the market in February than in January. We're below the number of new listings from this time last year. We should be seeing more listings, not less.

Available Listings = We have about 200 more homes on the market now than we did last month. The increase is good, but it is a much slower growth in listings than we should be seeing right now.

Days on Market = Called it. Days on market went from a median of 17 last month to 10. 7 Days might not seem like a lot, but the expected time on the market got cut in half. This shows just how hot the market is right now.

Price = After a winter dip in median home price, we're right back to where we were last summer. Median home price for February was $1.1m (all-time record high). Read the full article to see where we think this is going.

Interest Rate = Slight increases in rate over the last 30 days. MND has rates at 7.09% today.

There is your summary... now let's dive into what we're seeing and what we can expect.

Over the last 30 days, we've seen buyers get EXTREMELY competitive overnight. We have officially pulled out all the tricks from 2021 to get our offers accepted. This means writing offers that compete with cash.

Agents that weren't paying attention in the last few weeks are way behind the market. We have been talking to a lot of sellers who are looking to take advantage of the market. A lot of them have also added themselves to our off-market list. (if you don't know what that is, check out this blog from a few weeks ago)

We are going to see prices increase again until one thing happens. Inventory comes to the market. There are just enough new listings coming to the market to keep the market under control. Having said that, if a home 'Looks Good and is Priced Right' it's going to get a lot of action.

There are absolutely no signs of a ton of new inventory coming soon. To make that situation even more dire, we're not too far away from the end of the year. ( I know it's March, but bear with me...). Almost everyone agrees that we're going to see interest rates come down at the end of this year. Or, worst case, early next year.. If we are still in this type of environment when rates come down, we're going to see prices explode in Orange County.

Now I do have to say... This is NOT happening everywhere. This shows us how well-insulated our market is compared to the rest of the nation. My friends, who are agents in other states, are feeling the opposite.

Parts of Texas are seeing too much inventory come to the market—far more new listings than buyers, leading to prices dropping.

However... both buyers and sellers can still take advantage of this market. You just have to know how to do that.

Reach out to us. We're really good at this. Reach out to your Onyx Agent if you're already working with us. If not, reply to this email, and I'll personally respond to get you set up.

 

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